MAAS Group FY2025 operations montage

MAAS Group Holdings

Initiation of Coverage · ASX: MGH

A portfolio reset converts Construction Materials into potential balance-sheet capacity. Value now depends on transaction leakage, residual electrical and civil earnings, property realization and capital allocation.

Reference priceA$5.19
Target priceA$5.90
Modeled total return15.0%
FY2026 RevenueA$1,370m
FY2026 EBITDAA$265m
FY2026 adjusted EPSA$0.268
BUY (High Risk)

Information date: 28 July 2026. Independent indicative research prepared from public and licensed information. Forecasts, valuation and risks are analyst estimates, not personal investment advice. Cover image: MAAS Group FY2025 Annual Report.

01

Investment Scorecard

A portfolio transition with real asset backing, but the equity case depends on transaction completion and disciplined reinvestment.

What the market is underwriting

Our A$5.90 target is not a conventional multiple on the current consolidated group. It is a probability-weighted sum of post-transaction net cash, residual operating earnings, property assets and the Firmus minority investment. At A$5.19, the market already credits much of the announced Construction Materials value; the remaining debate is how much consideration is received, how much leaks through tax and transaction costs, and whether the residual group can compound the proceeds at attractive returns.

The Buy (High Risk) indication sits on the house total-return threshold rather than far above it. That is important. A five percentage-point increase in transaction leakage removes about A$0.23 per share; a A$20m shortfall in residual EBITDA removes about A$0.41 per share at the base multiple. The call is therefore positive, but not forgiving.

Sources: FY2025 Annual Report · H1 FY2026 Report · 18 May 2026 Corporate Update

Share-price context

MGH share price

MGH recent share price0 A$2 A$3 A$5 A$6 A$11-1212-1001-1202-1003-1004-0705-0506-0207-0107-28Close
Daily closing prices from the frozen FMP snapshot through 28 July 2026.

Sources: FMP frozen snapshot

Report map

No.SectionDecision use
01Investment ScorecardPrice, target, rating and the report's central question
02Investment SummaryWhat drives upside, what must be proven
03Thesis and Variant ViewWhere our assumptions differ from a simple growth narrative
04Company and PortfolioOperating businesses, customers and revenue engines
05Construction Materials DivestmentSale terms, leakage and pro-forma balance sheet
06Electrical and Digital InfrastructureSecured Firmus work versus prospective pipeline
07Civil, Property and ManufacturingResidual portfolio economics
08Industry and Macro DriversInfrastructure, power, housing and execution cycles
09Historical FinancialsGrowth, margins, leverage and cash conversion
10Forecast FrameworkReported-to-continuing bridge and forecast formulas
11Financial ForecastsRevenue, EBITDA, EPS and cash flow
12ValuationTransaction-adjusted SOTP and cross-checks
13Scenarios, Catalysts and RisksFalsifiable events and quantified downside
14Capital Allocation and GovernanceUse of proceeds and stewardship
15Methodology, Sources and DisclosuresDefinitions, evidence and limitations

Sources: FY2025 Annual Report · H1 FY2026 Report · 18 May 2026 Corporate Update

02

Investment Summary

The investment case is a three-part underwriting exercise: monetize Materials, prove the residual earnings base, and allocate the cash well.

Three mechanisms, not one story

First, the proposed sale can convert a capital-intensive Construction Materials portfolio into cash consideration of up to A$1.703bn. Second, the residual group must replace part of the disposed earnings base through electrical, civil, property and manufacturing activity. Third, the board must decide whether cash is returned, used to extinguish debt, or reinvested. Each mechanism has a different evidence standard and valuation consequence.

We do not describe MAAS as an AI data-centre owner. JLE is delivering electrical infrastructure for Firmus; MAAS has also made a A$100m minority investment representing about 1.7%. The secured A$200m Launceston contract is evidence-backed. The broader 3.3GW Firmus proposal is an opportunity set, not secured backlog.

MechanismEvidence at cutBase treatmentWhat would change the model
Materials saleUp to A$1.703bn; conditionalA$1.583bn upfront plus 60% of contingent considerationFinal completion accounts, tax and retained liabilities
Firmus contractA$200m; 35% complete by valueIncluded in FY2026-27 electrical earningsCommissioning, margin and signed follow-on scope
Capital allocationUse of net proceeds not finalizedDebt paid, A$100m Firmus investment recognized, remaining cash retainedDistribution, acquisitions or new committed projects

Sources: 18 May 2026 Corporate Update · H1 FY2026 Report

Our FY2026 estimates

Our FY2026 EBITDA forecast uses the midpoint of company guidance, not the higher provider consensus. The divergence likely includes definition and timing differences; we will not override explicit management guidance with an unexplained provider aggregate. Revenue is close to consensus, while EPS is moderately below it.

MetricFY2025AH1 FY2026AFY2026ECurrent consensusDifference
Underlying RevenueA$997.4mA$607.7mA$1,370.0mA$1,371.5m-0.1%
Underlying EBITDAA$219.4mA$115.3mA$265.0mA$309.8m-14.5%
Adjusted EPSA$0.227A$0.112A$0.268A$0.282-4.7%

Sources: FY2025 Annual Report · H1 FY2026 Report · 18 May 2026 Corporate Update · FMP frozen snapshot

The central debate

A simple bull case adds the sale consideration to the residual business and then capitalizes AI-related opportunity. That approach overstates value because gross proceeds are not distributable cash, the current net debt must be repaid, Firmus requires capital, and prospective sites are not contracts. A simple bear case treats the group as an ex-growth contractor and ignores the asset conversion and electrical capability. Both shortcuts are incomplete.

Our variant view is that the transaction lowers balance-sheet risk but raises capital-allocation risk. The residual group can deserve a higher quality multiple if JLE converts electrical capability into recurring contracted earnings and property capital is recycled efficiently. It deserves a lower multiple if the proceeds fund another acquisition cycle before the residual cash-return economics are demonstrated.

Sources: 18 May 2026 Corporate Update · FY2025 Annual Report

03

Thesis and Variant View

The report converts management's portfolio narrative into testable assumptions and dated proof points.

Variant 1: gross consideration is not equity value

The announced A$1.703bn is an upper bound comprising A$1.583bn upfront consideration and A$120m contingent consideration. Our base case includes only 60% of the contingent amount and deducts 8.5% for tax, fees, working-capital and other transaction leakage. These are assumptions because the final completion accounts are not public.

This treatment produces estimated net sale proceeds of about A$1.514bn and pro-forma net cash of about A$775m after H1 FY2026 net debt and the post-balance-date Firmus investment. A clean settlement above that amount creates upside; retained liabilities or tax leakage create downside.

Sources: 18 May 2026 Corporate Update · H1 FY2026 Report

Variant 2: a secured contract is valuable; a proposal is optionality

The A$200m Launceston contract is the only disclosed Firmus award that enters our base revenue path. Its 35% completion by value gives a measurable checkpoint and management expects calendar-2026 delivery and commissioning. The company also states an indicative A$200m of electrical revenue per 100MW for future projects, but that unit rate does not convert the proposed 3.3GW portfolio into A$6.6bn of backlog.

We require site-level scope, binding value, delivery timing and economics before adding a follow-on project. This discipline matters because electrical contracting can generate substantial revenue while still producing modest value if project risk, working capital and commissioning liabilities are poorly controlled.

Sources: 18 May 2026 Corporate Update · JLE official page

What would falsify the thesis

ClaimConfirming evidenceFalsifying evidence
Sale de-risks the balance sheetSettlement and transparent net proceedsDelay, break, or materially higher leakage
Electrical becomes a higher-quality growth engineCommissioning, margin and repeat signed scopeRevenue without cash conversion or repeat awards
Property is a source of realizable NAVSettlements and asset recycling near carrying valuesWrite-downs, slow inventory and weak cash realization
Capital allocation creates valueReturns above hurdle rates or distributionsAcquisitions or projects below cost of capital

Sources: 18 May 2026 Corporate Update · H1 FY2026 Report · FY2025 Annual Report

Dated proof points

WindowExpected eventModel compartment
August 2026FY2026 result and FY2027 guidanceRevenue, EBITDA, EPS and continuing perimeter
Q3-Q4 CY2026Heidelberg settlementNet cash and SOTP
CY2026Launceston commissioningElectrical revenue and margin
FY2027Use of sale proceedsNet cash, growth capex and target multiple

Sources: 18 May 2026 Corporate Update

04

Company and Portfolio

MAAS is a portfolio of materials, project delivery, property and equipment businesses whose economic drivers differ materially.

Five reported segments at FY2025

The FY2025 reporting structure comprised Construction Materials, Civil Construction and Hire, Residential Real Estate, Commercial Real Estate, and Manufacturing. Construction Materials supplied quarry, concrete, crushing, geotechnical and asphalt services. Civil combined infrastructure delivery, equipment hire and electrical services. The property divisions developed and recycled residential and commercial assets; Manufacturing sold and hired underground equipment.

This mix makes consolidated Revenue a poor standalone indicator. Commercial Real Estate generated A$50.7m of FY2025 underlying EBITDA, but A$38.3m came from fair-value gains. Civil Revenue declined in FY2025 as projects rolled off, while Materials grew through acquisitions. The quality and cash conversion of each dollar therefore differs by segment.

MAAS operating model and portfolio. Official FY2025 annual-report page.
MAAS operating model and portfolio. Official FY2025 annual-report page. Source

Sources: FY2025 Annual Report

Segment Revenue

Reported segment Revenue

MGH segment Revenue0m142m284m425m567mFY2024FY2025H1 FY2026Construction MaterialsCivil Construction and HireResidential Real EstateCommercial Real EstateManufacturing
Underlying segment Revenue in A$ millions. H1 FY2026 represents six months.

Sources: FY2025 Annual Report · H1 FY2026 Report

Segment economics and customer exposure

SegmentCore outputPrimary demandKey financial issue
Construction MaterialsAggregates, concrete, asphalt, geotechnicalInfrastructure and constructionPending sale; high asset intensity
Civil and HireCivil delivery, equipment, electricalRenewables, mining, utilities, digital infrastructureProject timing, utilization and contract risk
ResidentialLand and housingRegional migration, housing supply, ratesSettlement timing and inventory
CommercialIndustrial, childcare, self-storage and constructionTenant demand and capitalization ratesFair-value gains versus cash realization
ManufacturingUnderground mining equipment and partsMining capex and export demandTariffs, distribution and cyclicality

H1 FY2026 segment EBITDA margins

MGH H1 FY2026 segment EBITDA marginsConstruction Materials19.6%Civil and Hire15.5%Residential21.3%Commercial44.1%Manufacturing12.5%
Commercial margin includes A$19.1m of fair-value gains and is not treated as recurring OpCo margin.

Sources: FY2025 Annual Report · H1 FY2026 Report

Company digital twin: the operating system in one page

This is a decision-focused view of the current company twin, not the full database graph. It selects the accepted relationships that explain what MAAS sells, which customer groups it serves, how JLE reaches the Firmus AI-infrastructure opportunity, and which operating mechanisms matter to Revenue, EBITDA, cash and valuation.

The structure reveals three different economic systems inside one listed company: asset-heavy materials and civil activity, property inventory and valuation exposure, and a contract-led electrical growth platform. The proposed Materials sale changes the portfolio perimeter; it does not by itself prove that the smaller residual company will earn higher returns.

Accepted company-twin relationship Analyst-derived financial transmission

What MAAS sells and who it serves

CompanyOperating divisionsProducts and servicesCustomer groupsMAAS Group HoldingsLimitedConstruction Materialsproposed saleCivil Construction andHireManufacturing andEquipment SalesResidential RealEstateCommercial Real EstateQuarry materials andpremixed concreteCivil infrastructuredeliveryMobile equipmentmanufacture and hireResidential landdevelopmentCommercial propertydevelopmentInfrastructure andconstruction customersMining customersProperty buyers andtenants
The legacy operating portfolio converts divisions into products and customer groups. Customer nodes are disclosed customer categories; they are not a complete customer roster.

Multi-hop electrical growth path

MAAS GroupHoldingsLimitedJLE GroupElectricalServiceshigh voltage / switchboardsFirmuselectricalinfrastructureA$200m securedFirmus GridLimitedDigitalinfrastructureand AI data
JLE provides the electrical capability, the Firmus agreement is the secured contract, and Firmus is the named customer and minority investee. AI infrastructure is the end market, not a MAAS-owned platform.

How operating risks reach valuation

Materials sale delay orfailureIllustrative downside A$1.39/shareConditionalMaterials saleNet sale proceedsSOTP value /EPSFirmus delay / nofollow-on awardIllustrative downside A$0.41/shareFirmus electricalcontractElectricalRevenue / EBITDASOTP value /EPSProject, weather andexecution lossIllustrative downside A$0.20/shareCivil Constructionand HireCivil margin /cash conversionSOTP value /EPS
Dashed paths are explicit analyst mappings from the quantified risk register. They show the affected financial compartment; they do not claim experimentally proven causality.

Sources: FY2025 Annual Report · H1 FY2026 Report · 18 May 2026 Corporate Update · JLE official page

Geographic concentration

MAAS remains primarily an Australian operator, with its main activities concentrated along the east coast and regional infrastructure corridors. FY2025 foreign Revenue of A$29.1m related to underground equipment and toll manufacturing across a diversified group of countries; no individual foreign country was material.

The geographic concentration supports local operating familiarity but leaves earnings exposed to Australian infrastructure schedules, weather, housing conditions and interest rates. It also means that the Construction Materials sale is a substantial portfolio reset rather than a minor asset disposal.

MAAS Australian operating footprint. Official FY2025 annual-report page.
MAAS Australian operating footprint. Official FY2025 annual-report page. Source

Sources: FY2025 Annual Report

05

Construction Materials Divestment

The proposed sale is the dominant valuation event. Our model separates transaction facts from completion assumptions and reinvestment judgment.

Transaction terms at the research cut

TermDisclosed amount/statusModel treatment
Upfront cash considerationA$1.583bn100% included
Contingent considerationUp to A$120m60% probability in base
Total considerationUp to A$1.703bnUpper bound only
Expected settlementQ3 or Q4 CY202631 October 2026 base timing
ApprovalsConditions and regulatory workstreams progressingNot treated as completed

Sources: 18 May 2026 Corporate Update · H1 FY2026 Report

From consideration to deployable cash

Base transaction bridge

MGH transaction bridge04559101,3651,821+1,583Upfront+72Contingent-141Leakage-640Net debt-100Firmus stake
A$ millions. Contingent consideration and leakage are analyst assumptions; net debt and the Firmus investment are sourced facts.
ItemA$mClassification
Upfront cash consideration1,583.0sourced fact
Probability-weighted contingent consideration72.0forecast assumption
Transaction, tax and fee leakage-140.7forecast assumption
Estimated net sale proceeds1,514.3derived calculation
H1 FY2026 underlying net debt-639.6sourced fact
Post-balance-date Firmus investment-100.0sourced fact
Pro-forma post-sale net cash774.7derived calculation

Sources: 18 May 2026 Corporate Update · H1 FY2026 Report

The reporting-perimeter problem

If settlement occurs during FY2027, the statutory presentation may classify Construction Materials as discontinued operations and remove its Revenue from continuing operations even though several months of trading occurred. Current provider consensus may reflect a different convention. We therefore publish three fields: continuing Revenue, disposed Materials Revenue and group underlying Revenue.

This is not cosmetic. A declining headline Revenue series after the sale can coexist with higher per-share value if proceeds exceed the disposed business's value and capital is allocated well. Conversely, Revenue growth can mask value destruction if it is bought with the proceeds at weak returns.

Sources: 18 May 2026 Corporate Update · FMP frozen snapshot

Use of proceeds determines the second half of the thesis

UseValue-positive conditionPrincipal risk
Debt reductionReduces financial risk and interest expenseTemporary benefit if leverage is rebuilt
Shareholder distributionReturns excess cash without impairing growthForegoes high-return opportunities
Electrical growthSigned contracts earn returns above the cost of capitalPipeline is mistaken for backlog
Property developmentCash margins and cycle times compensate for capital intensityInventory and valuation risk
AcquisitionsSynergies and returns are evidenced before deploymentRepeats leverage-led portfolio expansion

Sources: 18 May 2026 Corporate Update · FY2025 Annual Report

06

Electrical and Digital Infrastructure

JLE provides a credible route into power-intensive infrastructure, but the forecast recognizes contracts, not megawatt headlines.

What JLE actually delivers

JLE sits within Civil Construction and Hire and provides electrical infrastructure, transmission and distribution, communications and specialized services. For data centres and AI factories, MAAS describes a complete electrical powertrain capability spanning grid connection, high-voltage substations and switchyards, transformers, switchgear, testing, commissioning and standby generation.

This is an enabling-infrastructure exposure. MAAS is not underwriting GPU demand directly and does not control the Firmus data-centre platform. Earnings depend on contracted scope, project delivery, margin discipline and working-capital conversion.

Infrastructure delivery capability. Official FY2025 annual-report image.
Infrastructure delivery capability. Official FY2025 annual-report image. Source

Sources: FY2025 Annual Report · 18 May 2026 Corporate Update · JLE official page

Launceston: the secured evidence base

MeasureDisclosed factForecast relevance
Contract valueA$200mIncluded across FY2026-27 delivery
Capacity100MWProject scale, not a valuation unit by itself
Progress at May 2026Approximately 35% by valueSupports near-term Revenue recognition
DeliveryCalendar 2026Commissioning is the next proof point
DivisionJLE electricalAffects Civil and Hire segment economics

Sources: 18 May 2026 Corporate Update

The 3.3GW proposal is not backlog

Management has described an exclusive electrical delivery partnership for Firmus's proposed 3.3GW Australian AI Factory portfolio and an indicative A$200m of Revenue per 100MW. Multiplying those two statements produces A$6.6bn, but that is not an acceptable forecast. It assumes every proposed site proceeds, MAAS retains identical scope, pricing does not change and execution capacity is unlimited.

Our base case adds no unnamed follow-on site. Additional Revenue enters only after a binding award with a disclosed value or sufficiently specific scope. The proposed pipeline remains an upside catalyst and helps justify the bull-case multiple, but it is not part of base backlog.

Sources: 18 May 2026 Corporate Update

Financial transmission

DriverRevenue effectMargin effectCash effect
Contract awardAdds signed scope over delivery periodDepends on pricing and risk allocationMay require bonding and working capital
Manufacturing progressRevenue recognized progressivelyFactory utilization can improveInventory and supplier payments precede collection
Commissioning delayDefers milestonesDelay costs can compress marginReceivables and contract assets may rise
Repeat sitesExtends duration and scaleLearning can improve executionCapacity and capital requirements increase

Sources: 18 May 2026 Corporate Update · H1 FY2026 Report

07

Civil, Property and Manufacturing

The residual group is diversified, but diversification is valuable only if accounting earnings convert into cash.

Civil and Hire: recovery plus project risk

Civil and Hire FY2025 Revenue fell 5.5% and underlying EBITDA fell 35.0% as higher-margin projects rolled off, replacement work was delayed and isolated projects incurred losses. H1 FY2026 Revenue then rose with electrical representing 20.5% of segment mix. The base forecast assumes Firmus and renewable/infrastructure work restore margins, but not to the point where contracting risk disappears.

Our FY2027 continuing model assigns A$560m Revenue and A$105m EBITDA to Civil and electrical activities. That is the largest residual earnings component and therefore the key input into the OpCo multiple.

Civil and equipment operations. Official FY2025 annual-report image.
Civil and equipment operations. Official FY2025 annual-report image. Source

Sources: FY2025 Annual Report · H1 FY2026 Report · 18 May 2026 Corporate Update

Property: separate recurring earnings from revaluation

FY2025 Commercial Real Estate underlying EBITDA was A$50.7m, but A$38.3m came from fair-value gains. H1 FY2026 included another A$19.1m of fair-value gains. These amounts can reflect genuine development progress, yet they are not equivalent to cash receipts and should not be capitalized as recurring contractor earnings.

We therefore value Residential and Commercial primarily through a discounted gross accounting reference of A$598.8m, consisting of investment properties, properties held for sale and inventories at H1 FY2026. This is not a clean liquidation NAV: it is before associated liabilities, tax, construction costs and realization risk. A 10% discount is applied in the base case and 25% in the bear case.

Commercial property portfolio. Official FY2025 annual-report image.
Commercial property portfolio. Official FY2025 annual-report image. Source

Sources: FY2025 Annual Report · H1 FY2026 Report

Manufacturing: small, export-exposed optionality

Manufacturing generated A$33.6m of FY2025 underlying Revenue and A$5.1m EBITDA, with improved machine sales and hire activity. The business sells underground equipment and parts through international distribution networks. It is a small contributor to group value, but offers a distinct mining-capex exposure.

The annual report also identifies tariffs and global trade instability as risks. We model the segment conservatively at A$38m FY2027 Revenue and A$6m EBITDA, with no strategic premium.

Manufacturing and equipment operations. Official FY2025 annual-report image.
Manufacturing and equipment operations. Official FY2025 annual-report image. Source

Sources: FY2025 Annual Report

Property operating proof points

MeasureFY2025/H1 FY2026 factWhat matters next
Residential lots201 FY2025 settlements; 80 H1 FY2026 settlementsSettlement pace and gross margin
Commercial fair-value gainsA$38.3m FY2025; A$19.1m H1 FY2026Cash realization and external valuation support
Investment propertiesA$278.3m at H1 FY2026Cap rates, completion and disposals
InventoriesA$281.2m current plus non-currentDevelopment spend and cash conversion
Residential development portfolio. Official FY2025 annual-report image.
Residential development portfolio. Official FY2025 annual-report image. Source

Sources: FY2025 Annual Report · H1 FY2026 Report

08

Industry and Macro Drivers

MAAS is exposed to several cycles at once: public infrastructure, power investment, housing, property capitalization rates and project execution.

Infrastructure and power networks

Renewable Energy Zones, transmission investment, mining infrastructure and regional public works support demand for civil, electrical and equipment services. The financial mechanism is not simply higher project counts. Contract timing affects utilization; contract structure determines margin volatility; working-capital terms determine whether EBITDA converts into cash.

Our base case assumes a recovery from FY2025 project delays and includes the secured Firmus work. It does not assume that every announced infrastructure program translates into MAAS awards.

Sources: FY2025 Annual Report · H1 FY2026 Report

Power-intensive digital infrastructure

AI infrastructure increases demand for grid connections, substations, switchgear, transformers and commissioning. That creates a relevant end market for JLE's capabilities. The investment thesis is strongest where demand becomes binding electrical scope, not where industry megawatts are discussed without a contract.

The first-order forecast variables are signed contract value, completion percentage, margin and cash collection. Electricity demand, data-centre announcements and GPU deployments are secondary indicators that help explain opportunity formation but do not enter Revenue directly.

Sources: 18 May 2026 Corporate Update · JLE official page

Housing and interest rates

Lower borrowing costs can support residential demand and property capitalization rates, but the effect is neither immediate nor uniform. MAAS's regional inventory, stage readiness, buyer mix and settlement schedules determine conversion. Commercial property also depends on leasing, development milestones and exit liquidity.

We treat rate changes as scenario context. The forecast uses visible lots, projects and carrying values rather than a mechanical one-for-one relationship between policy rates and Revenue.

Sources: FY2025 Annual Report · H1 FY2026 Report

Weather, input costs and execution

Construction Materials and civil operations are exposed to adverse weather, project delay, fixed-cost utilization and input-cost inflation. Manufacturing adds tariff and trade-policy risk. These mechanisms can affect Revenue timing, margin and cash simultaneously, which is why the risk section quantifies EBITDA and NAV sensitivities rather than only listing qualitative risks.

Construction Materials operations. Official FY2025 annual-report image.
Construction Materials operations. Official FY2025 annual-report image. Source

Sources: FY2025 Annual Report

09

Historical Financials

MAAS has grown quickly, but leverage, acquisition activity and non-cash property gains make earnings quality as important as growth.

Revenue and EBITDA history

Annual Revenue and EBITDA

MGH annual Revenue and EBITDA0m296m593m889m1,185mFY21FY22FY23FY24FY25Statutory RevenueUnderlying/provider EBITDA
A$ millions. FY2024-25 underlying EBITDA is official; earlier EBITDA uses the frozen provider history.

Sources: FY2025 Annual Report · FMP frozen snapshot

H1 FY2026: growth with mixed cash characteristics

Revenue grew faster than EBITDA, causing the underlying EBITDA margin to decline from 20.7% to 19.0%. Operating cash flow improved materially, but property inventories and investment activity remain important uses of capital.

MetricH1 FY2025H1 FY2026Change
Statutory RevenueA$473.9mA$639.3m+34.9%
Underlying RevenueA$458.5mA$607.7m+32.5%
Underlying EBITDAA$95.0mA$115.3m+21.4%
Statutory NPAT to ownersA$31.3mA$37.9m+21.1%
Net operating cash flowA$(3.3)mA$37.0mImproved

Sources: H1 FY2026 Report

Balance sheet before the proposed sale

H1 FY2026 itemA$mInterpretation
Underlying net debt639.6Starting point for pro-forma transaction cash
Cash93.3Reported cash at 31 December 2025
Total equity922.7Includes A$10.7m non-controlling interest
Investment properties278.3Fair-value carrying amount
Property held for sale39.4Current asset
Inventories281.2Current and non-current, including development inventory

Sources: H1 FY2026 Report

Earnings quality adjustments

MAAS reports statutory and underlying measures. In FY2025, underlying Revenue was A$42.7m below statutory Revenue because the company excluded Revenue attributable to non-controlling interests. Underlying NPAT was A$6.5m above statutory NPAT to owners. H1 FY2026 showed a smaller A$2.7m NPAT adjustment.

The largest analytical issue is Commercial Real Estate fair-value income. We retain official underlying EBITDA for historical comparison, but separate fair-value gains from recurring OpCo earnings in valuation. This prevents a non-cash revaluation from receiving the same multiple as contracted electrical work.

PeriodStatutory RevenueUnderlying RevenueStatutory NPATUnderlying NPAT
FY2025A$1,040.0mA$997.4mA$72.0mA$78.5m
H1 FY2026A$639.3mA$607.7mA$37.9mA$40.6m

Sources: FY2025 Annual Report · H1 FY2026 Report

10

Forecast Framework

The model is driver-based and perimeter-aware. It does not extrapolate the current group after a major disposal.

Core equations

Segment Revenue
Prior Revenue × (1 + volume + price/mix + contract ramp + acquisition/disposal effect)

Adjusted EBITDA
Continuing segment Revenue × segment margin + separately modeled fair-value gains - central costs

Adjusted EPS
(EBITDA - D&A + net interest) × (1 - tax rate) ÷ diluted shares

FCFF
EBIT × (1 - tax rate) + D&A - capex - change in working capital

SOTP equity value
Post-sale net cash + residual OpCo value + property value + Firmus stake value

FY2027 continuing-business build

Civil and electrical plus Manufacturing and central costs form the residual OpCo multiple. Residential and Commercial are captured primarily through property NAV to avoid double-counting. Commercial fair-value gains remain in reported underlying EBITDA but are excluded from the OpCo valuation base.

ComponentRevenueEBITDAValuation treatment
Civil and electricalA$560.0mA$105.0mOpCo multiple
Residential propertyA$120.0mA$27.0mProperty NAV
Commercial property cash earningsA$125.0mA$15.0mProperty NAV
Commercial property fair-value gainsA$0.0mA$15.0mExcluded from OpCo multiple
ManufacturingA$38.0mA$6.0mOpCo multiple
Corporate and eliminationsA$-43.0mA$-12.0mOpCo multiple

Sources: FY2025 Annual Report · H1 FY2026 Report · 18 May 2026 Corporate Update

Reported-to-continuing bridge

Revenue perimeter

MGH forecast Revenue perimeter0m300m601m901m1,202mFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30Continuing RevenueDisposed Materials Revenue
A$ millions. Disposed Materials contribution is shown separately rather than hidden in a single growth rate.

Sources: 18 May 2026 Corporate Update

Forecast governance

RuleImplementation
No lookaheadOnly information available by 28 July 2026 is used
Official-source precedenceCompany filings override provider statement values
No pipeline-as-backlogOnly the A$200m Firmus contract enters base Revenue
No gross-proceeds shortcutDebt, leakage and invested cash are separately bridged
No property double-countProperty divisions use NAV rather than OpCo EBITDA multiple
Human approvalThe target and rating remain analyst judgments

Sources: FY2025 Annual Report · H1 FY2026 Report · 18 May 2026 Corporate Update · FMP frozen snapshot

11

Financial Forecasts

FY2026 is anchored to guidance; FY2027 is a transition year; later years represent the continuing company.

Base-case forecast

A$m except EPSFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
Continuing Revenue690.0800.0896.0976.61,045.0
Disposed Materials Revenue680.0230.00.00.00.0
Group underlying Revenue1,370.01,030.0896.0976.61,045.0
Group underlying EBITDA265.0204.0192.6214.9232.0
Adjusted NPAT98.088.2107.4123.3136.2
Adjusted EPSA$0.268A$0.241A$0.294A$0.337A$0.373
Continuing FCFF27.861.983.796.6106.2

Sources: FY2025 Annual Report · H1 FY2026 Report · 18 May 2026 Corporate Update

EBITDA and EPS path

Group underlying EBITDA

MGH EBITDA forecast0m74m148m223m297mFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30EBITDA
A$ millions. FY2027 includes partial-year disposed Materials EBITDA.

Adjusted EPS

MGH adjusted EPS forecast00000FY26FY27FY28FY29FY30Adjusted EPS
A$ per diluted share. Transaction gains and one-off costs are excluded.

Sources: 18 May 2026 Corporate Update

Current consensus comparison

FY2027 onward is not a clean like-for-like comparison because current provider consensus may include a different number of Materials trading months or a different discontinued-operations presentation. We retain it as a reasonableness check, not as the forecast target.

FYConsensus RevenueOur headline RevenueConsensus EBITDAOur EBITDAConsensus EPSOur EPS
2026A$1,371.5mA$1,370.0mA$309.8mA$265.0mA$0.281A$0.268
2027A$1,296.0mA$1,030.0mA$292.7mA$204.0mA$0.311A$0.241
2028A$1,239.2mA$896.0mA$279.9mA$192.6mA$0.364A$0.294
2029A$1,524.8mA$976.6mA$344.4mA$214.9mA$0.374A$0.337

Sources: FMP frozen snapshot

Cash conversion is the quality test

The model produces continuing FCFF of about A$62m in FY2027 and A$84m in FY2028 before discretionary acquisitions or major new Firmus site investment. The path improves as residual margins normalize and interest expense falls, but property inventory and electrical working capital can absorb cash before Revenue is collected.

We will judge forecast quality using receipts, contract assets, inventory, capex and realized property proceeds rather than EBITDA alone. The sale itself is a financing event, not operating cash flow.

Continuing free cash flow

MGH continuing FCFFFY2627.8mFY2761.9mFY2883.7mFY2996.6mFY30106.2m
A$ millions; transaction proceeds excluded.

Sources: H1 FY2026 Report

12

Valuation

The primary method is a transaction-adjusted SOTP because a consolidated multiple cannot represent the post-sale company cleanly.

Base SOTP

ComponentA$mA$/shareMethod
Post-sale net cash774.72.12Probability-weighted consideration less leakage, net debt and Firmus investment
Residual OpCo742.52.03A$99m EBITDA at 7.5x
Property538.961.47A$598.8m gross reference at 10% discount
Firmus minority stake100.00.27Cost reference
Base equity value2,156.25.90Sum of the parts
Probability-weighted target-5.9025% bear / 50% base / 25% bull

Sources: 18 May 2026 Corporate Update · H1 FY2026 Report

Bear, base and bull

Scenario value per share

MGH scenario value per shareBear4.6Base5.9Bull7.2
A$ per share. Scenario changes include consideration, leakage, OpCo earnings/multiple, property discount and Firmus value.
ScenarioNet cashOpCo valuePropertyFirmusValue/share
BearA$653.4mA$504.0mA$449.1mA$65.0mA$4.57
BaseA$774.7mA$742.5mA$539.0mA$100.0mA$5.90
BullA$861.2mA$1,062.0mA$598.8mA$125.0mA$7.24

Sources: 18 May 2026 Corporate Update · H1 FY2026 Report

Leakage and residual multiple sensitivity

The base target is not robust to every assumption. At the same A$99m residual EBITDA, moving from 8.5% to 12.0% leakage reduces value by about A$0.16 per share. Moving the OpCo multiple by 1.5x changes value by about A$0.41 per share.

EV/EBITDA6.0% leakage8.5% leakage12.0% leakage
6.00xA$5.60A$5.49A$5.33
6.75xA$5.81A$5.69A$5.54
7.50xA$6.01A$5.90A$5.74
8.25xA$6.21A$6.10A$5.94
9.00xA$6.42A$6.30A$6.15

Public peer cross-check

The screened peer median EV/EBITDA is 12.7x. We use 7.5x for residual MAAS because the peer set contains higher-quality, less property-intensive and often net-cash contractors, while MAAS still faces transaction, customer concentration and capital-allocation risk. The peer table is a cross-check, not the primary method.

TickerCompanyEV/EBITDAP/ENet debt/EBITDAROIC
MGH.AXMAAS Group Holdings Limited12.0x24.7x3.2x4.6%
GNP.AXGenusPlus Group Limited19.2x34.1x-0.9x16.8%
IPG.AXIPD Group Limited11.8x19.0x1.3x11.7%
NWH.AXNRW Holdings Limited12.7x66.0x0.9x4.8%
VNT.AXVentia Services Group Limited10.1x18.2x1.3x20.2%
DOW.AXDowner EDI Ltd9.9x32.9x1.5x5.8%
MND.AXMonadelphous Group Limited16.8x27.3x-1.3x14.4%
SVW.AXSeven Group Holdings Limited13.9x36.3x3.1x10.4%

Sources: FMP frozen snapshot

13

Scenarios, Catalysts and Risks

The report translates qualitative debate into measurable forecast and valuation changes.

Scenario narratives

ScenarioOperating outcomeTransaction outcomeValue/share
BearFirmus timing slips; residual OpCo EBITDA A$84mNo contingent consideration; 12% leakageA$4.57
BaseLaunceston completes; residual OpCo EBITDA A$99m60% contingent probability; 8.5% leakageA$5.90
BullRepeat electrical scope and stronger property realization; A$118m OpCo EBITDAFull contingent consideration; 6% leakageA$7.24

Quantified risk register

RiskProbabilityImpactIllustrative downside/shareMonitor
Construction Materials transaction fails or is materially delayedMediumHighA$1.39Regulatory approvals, shareholder documentation and settlement notice
Transaction leakage is five percentage points above baseMediumMediumA$0.23Scheme/transaction documents and completion accounts
Firmus delivery is delayed or follow-on contracts do not convertMediumHighA$0.41Launceston completion, commissioning and signed site-level scope
Property carrying values or settlement rates weakenMediumMediumA$0.16Lot settlements, development pipeline, cap rates and asset recycling
Capital is redeployed below the cost of capitalMediumHighA$0.55Use-of-proceeds framework, hurdle rates, acquisitions and distributions
Project, weather and execution losses recurMediumMediumA$0.20Project margin commentary, claims, utilization and contract mix

Sources: FY2025 Annual Report · H1 FY2026 Report · 18 May 2026 Corporate Update

Catalyst ledger

CatalystWindowEvidence required
FY2026 result and FY2027 guidanceAugust 2026EBITDA within A$250-280m guidance and transparent continuing/discontinued bridge
Heidelberg transaction approval and settlementQ3-Q4 CY2026Net proceeds, leakage, debt reduction and use-of-proceeds policy
Launceston AI Factory commissioningCY2026Completion, recognized revenue, margin and cash conversion
Additional signed Firmus site scopeNext several reporting periodsBinding contract value, capacity, delivery timing and economics
Capital return or disciplined reinvestmentAfter transaction settlementBoard-approved allocation with explicit hurdle rates
Residential and commercial asset recyclingFY2027Cash proceeds, realized margins and reduction in capital intensity

Sources: 18 May 2026 Corporate Update

How to revise the model when evidence arrives

A transaction update first changes the net-cash compartment: consideration probability, leakage and timing. A Firmus award changes the electrical Revenue schedule, margin, working capital and potentially the residual multiple, but only after the signed scope is validated. A property sale changes cash realization and NAV, not just reported Revenue.

We do not infer causality from a one-day share-price move. Event-window returns can show whether the market reacted, but financial forecast revisions require an identified business mechanism and a dated assumption change. The report should therefore be versioned at each material event rather than silently rewritten.

Sources: 18 May 2026 Corporate Update

14

Capital Allocation and Governance

After the sale, stewardship of the balance sheet becomes more important than the disposal headline.

A proposed allocation framework

The first call on proceeds should be transaction costs, tax, retained liabilities and debt reduction. The second should be already committed capital, including the A$100m Firmus investment. Remaining cash should be evaluated against explicit hurdle rates and downside liquidity needs. In our view, a residual cash buffer plus a mix of shareholder return and contract-backed electrical investment would provide the clearest evidence of discipline.

The A$1.18bn syndicated facility increases liquidity but is not itself value creation. Likewise, the Western Sydney Aerotropolis facility should be assessed on net economic exposure: MAAS disclosed an up-to-A$625m secured loan supported by limited-recourse back-to-back funding. Gross facility size should not be presented as owned property or Revenue.

Sources: 18 May 2026 Corporate Update

Governance questions for the next result

QuestionWhy it matters
What is the final net cash after completion accounts?Determines distributable and deployable value
What return hurdles apply to Firmus and new projects?Tests whether growth exceeds the cost of capital
How will performance be reported after the disposal?Prevents perimeter confusion
What limits apply to acquisitions and leverage?Controls reinvestment and balance-sheet risk
What proportion of electrical backlog is fixed price?Clarifies margin and working-capital exposure

Sources: FY2025 Annual Report · 18 May 2026 Corporate Update

Dividend and shareholder return

The FY2025 final dividend and H1 FY2026 interim dividend were each 3.5 cents per share and fully franked. At the A$5.19 reference price, the trailing 7.0-cent dividend represents a 1.35% yield. Our total-return calculation includes that amount as a forward reference, but no special distribution is assumed.

A transaction-related capital return would be incremental upside only after settlement, tax and liquidity needs are known. The target does not capitalize an unannounced special dividend.

Sources: FY2025 Annual Report · H1 FY2026 Report · FMP frozen snapshot

Operational stewardship

MAAS's operating footprint creates safety, environmental, community and land-development obligations. For valuation, the most immediate transmission channels are project stoppages, remediation, approvals, insurance, weather resilience and access to customers. We do not assign a generic ESG premium or discount.

MAAS operating portfolio. Official FY2025 annual-report page.
MAAS operating portfolio. Official FY2025 annual-report page. Source

Sources: FY2025 Annual Report

15

Methodology, Sources and Disclosures

Every material figure is classified as fact, calculation, assumption or judgment; known gaps remain visible.

Method hierarchy

LayerTreatment
Official factsASX/company reports and announcements are primary
Provider dataFMP is used for price, consensus and peer cross-checks
Derived calculationsFormula outputs reconcile to frozen inputs
Forecast assumptionsExplicit and scenario-tested; not described as facts
Analyst judgmentRating, target, multiples and probabilities reflect scenario-sensitive analyst judgment
UnknownsFinal transaction leakage, follow-on Firmus scope and private contracts remain unknown

Sources: FY2025 Annual Report · H1 FY2026 Report · 18 May 2026 Corporate Update · FMP frozen snapshot

Source ledger

SourceRoleStatusLimitation
MAAS Group FY2025 Annual ReportdirectavailableCompany disclosure; non-IFRS underlying measures require reconciliation.
MAAS Group H1 FY2026 ReportdirectavailableSix-month actuals; second-half seasonality and transaction effects remain estimates.
MAAS Group Corporate Update, 18 May 2026directavailableForward-looking management statements are assumption anchors, not actual results.
JLE Group official company pagedirectavailableCompany description; project economics require contract-level evidence.
Financial Modeling Prepcross_checkavailableProvider data is supporting evidence and must not override official filings.
Argus MGH company-twin snapshotsupportingavailableUsed for structured discovery and cross-reference; report facts retain primary-source citations.
Historical point-in-time consensus archivegapknown_gapNot available in the POC; current consensus is context only.
Frozen MGH FMP snapshotcross_checkavailablePoint-in-time provider snapshot; current consensus is not historical consensus.

Sources: FY2025 Annual Report · H1 FY2026 Report · 18 May 2026 Corporate Update · FMP frozen snapshot

Definitions and limitations

Underlying measures are non-IFRS metrics defined by MAAS and reconciled in company reports. Adjusted EPS in this report excludes transaction gains and one-off costs. Continuing Revenue excludes the divested Materials business after the modeled settlement point. OpCo EBITDA excludes Residential, Commercial property earnings and fair-value gains because those assets are valued through NAV.

The SOTP is sensitive to undisclosed tax, fees, working-capital adjustments, retained liabilities and use of proceeds. The A$598.8m property reference is a gross accounting measure, not a liquidation NAV. The Firmus stake is unlisted and valued at cost in the base case. Current consensus is point-in-time context; a historical consensus archive was unavailable.

Research disclosure

This report is an independent research study prepared from public and licensed information available at the stated cut. It is not personal investment advice, a regulated research recommendation or an offer to transact. Forecasts and valuations are uncertain and can change materially when new information becomes available.

The investment view should be read together with the evidence links, explicit assumptions and scenario ranges in this report. Each of those inputs can be challenged or revised as new information becomes available. Publication of the target and rating requires human analyst approval before use as a regulated research recommendation.