MAAS Group Holdings

Three questions set the value

The proposed Construction Materials sale can turn an asset-heavy division into up to A$1.703bn of cash consideration. That is only the first step. The residual group then has to replace part of the sold earnings through civil, electrical, property and manufacturing, while the board decides how much capital is returned and how much is reinvested.

JLE gives MAAS credible exposure to power-intensive digital infrastructure, but MAAS is not a data-centre owner. The A$200m Launceston electrical contract is secured and 35% complete by value at the last update. The broader 3.3GW Firmus portfolio remains a proposal; it carries no Revenue in our base case until site-level scope is signed.

Sources: 18 May 2026 Corporate Update (pp. 1-3) · H1 FY2026 Report (pp. 2, 8-11, 23 and 30)

FY2026: guidance, not optimism, anchors the model

We hold FY2026 EBITDA at A$265m, the midpoint of management's A$250-280m range. That is below the provider aggregate, whose perimeter and measure definitions are not fully visible. Revenue is broadly aligned with consensus; adjusted EPS is modestly lower.

Sources: FY2025 Annual Report (pp. 5, 13-16, 52-53, 92 and 168) · H1 FY2026 Report (pp. 2, 8-11, 23 and 30) · 18 May 2026 Corporate Update (pp. 1-3) · FMP market snapshot (Data frozen 28 July 2026)

Why the obvious bull and bear cases both miss something

The easy bull case adds gross sale proceeds to a growing AI-infrastructure story. It ignores tax and transaction leakage, debt repayment, the A$100m Firmus investment and the fact that proposed sites are not contracts. The easy bear case treats MAAS as a slower contractor and gives little credit for asset conversion or JLE's electrical capability.

Our middle ground is less exciting but more defensible: the transaction reduces financing risk and increases capital-allocation risk. A higher-quality multiple has to be earned through signed electrical work, cash conversion and disciplined recycling of property and sale proceeds.

Sources: 18 May 2026 Corporate Update (pp. 1-3) · FY2025 Annual Report (pp. 5, 13-16, 52-53, 92 and 168)

The company before the transition

Sources: FY2025 Annual Report (pp. 5, 13-16, 52-53, 92 and 168) · H1 FY2026 Report (pp. 2, 8-11, 23 and 30)

The deal has two values: completion and no completion

The A$1.703bn headline is an upper bound: A$1.583bn upfront and A$120m contingent. Our completion case recognizes 60% of the contingent amount and deducts 8.5% for tax, fees, working-capital and retained-liability leakage. That produces A$1.514bn of modeled net proceeds and A$775m of pro-forma net cash after H1 net debt and the post-balance-date Firmus investment.

The report now carries a separate no-deal case worth A$3.23. It assumes no sale proceeds, keeps the current group together, values FY2026 EBITDA at 7.0x and deducts adjusted net debt. This is a materially different economic state, rather than a completed transaction with slightly worse terms.

Sources: 18 May 2026 Corporate Update (pp. 1-3) · H1 FY2026 Report (pp. 2, 8-11, 23 and 30)

One signed Firmus contract; the rest remains optionality

The A$200m Launceston contract is the only disclosed Firmus award that enters our base revenue path. Its 35% completion by value gives a measurable checkpoint and management expects calendar-2026 delivery and commissioning. The company also states an indicative A$200m of electrical revenue per 100MW for future projects, but that unit rate does not convert the proposed 3.3GW portfolio into A$6.6bn of backlog.

We require site-level scope, binding value, delivery timing and economics before adding a follow-on project. This discipline matters because electrical contracting can generate substantial revenue while still producing modest value if project risk, working capital and commissioning liabilities are poorly controlled.

Sources: 18 May 2026 Corporate Update (pp. 1-3) · JLE official page (Company profile and capabilities)

What would falsify the thesis

Sources: 18 May 2026 Corporate Update (pp. 1-3) · H1 FY2026 Report (pp. 2, 8-11, 23 and 30) · FY2025 Annual Report (pp. 5, 13-16, 52-53, 92 and 168)

Dated proof points

Sources: 18 May 2026 Corporate Update (pp. 1-3)

Five reported segments at FY2025

The FY2025 reporting structure comprised Construction Materials, Civil Construction and Hire, Residential Real Estate, Commercial Real Estate, and Manufacturing. Construction Materials supplied quarry, concrete, crushing, geotechnical and asphalt services. Civil combined infrastructure delivery, equipment hire and electrical services. The property divisions developed and recycled residential and commercial assets; Manufacturing sold and hired underground equipment.

This mix makes consolidated Revenue a poor standalone indicator. Commercial Real Estate generated A$50.7m of FY2025 underlying EBITDA, but A$38.3m came from fair-value gains. Civil Revenue declined in FY2025 as projects rolled off, while Materials grew through acquisitions. The quality and cash conversion of each dollar therefore differs by segment.

Sources: FY2025 Annual Report (pp. 5, 13-16, 52-53, 92 and 168)

Segment Revenue

Sources: FY2025 Annual Report (pp. 5, 13-16, 52-53, 92 and 168) · H1 FY2026 Report (pp. 2, 8-11, 23 and 30)

Segment economics and customer exposure

Sources: FY2025 Annual Report (pp. 5, 13-16, 52-53, 92 and 168) · H1 FY2026 Report (pp. 2, 8-11, 23 and 30)

Company digital twin: the operating system in one page

This is a decision-focused view of the current company twin, not the full database graph. It selects the accepted relationships that explain what MAAS sells, which customer groups it serves, how JLE reaches the Firmus AI-infrastructure opportunity, and which operating mechanisms matter to Revenue, EBITDA, cash and valuation.

The structure reveals three different economic systems inside one listed company: asset-heavy materials and civil activity, property inventory and valuation exposure, and a contract-led electrical growth platform. The proposed Materials sale changes the portfolio perimeter; it does not by itself prove that the smaller residual company will earn higher returns.

Sources: FY2025 Annual Report (pp. 5, 13-16, 52-53, 92 and 168) · H1 FY2026 Report (pp. 2, 8-11, 23 and 30) · 18 May 2026 Corporate Update (pp. 1-3) · JLE official page (Company profile and capabilities)

Geographic concentration

MAAS remains primarily an Australian operator, with its main activities concentrated along the east coast and regional infrastructure corridors. FY2025 foreign Revenue of A$29.1m related to underground equipment and toll manufacturing across a diversified group of countries; no individual foreign country was material.

The geographic concentration supports local operating familiarity but leaves earnings exposed to Australian infrastructure schedules, weather, housing conditions and interest rates. It also means that the Construction Materials sale is a substantial portfolio reset rather than a minor asset disposal.

Sources: FY2025 Annual Report (pp. 5, 13-16, 52-53, 92 and 168)

Transaction terms at the research cut

Sources: 18 May 2026 Corporate Update (pp. 1-3) · H1 FY2026 Report (pp. 2, 8-11, 23 and 30)

From consideration to deployable cash

Sources: 18 May 2026 Corporate Update (pp. 1-3) · H1 FY2026 Report (pp. 2, 8-11, 23 and 30)

The reporting-perimeter problem

If settlement occurs during FY2027, the statutory presentation may classify Construction Materials as discontinued operations and remove its Revenue from continuing operations even though several months of trading occurred. Current provider consensus may reflect a different convention. We therefore publish three fields: continuing Revenue, disposed Materials Revenue and group underlying Revenue.

This is not cosmetic. A declining headline Revenue series after the sale can coexist with higher per-share value if proceeds exceed the disposed business's value and capital is allocated well. Conversely, Revenue growth can mask value destruction if it is bought with the proceeds at weak returns.

Sources: 18 May 2026 Corporate Update (pp. 1-3) · FMP market snapshot (Data frozen 28 July 2026)

Use of proceeds determines the second half of the thesis

Sources: 18 May 2026 Corporate Update (pp. 1-3) · FY2025 Annual Report (pp. 5, 13-16, 52-53, 92 and 168)

What JLE actually delivers

JLE sits within Civil Construction and Hire and provides electrical infrastructure, transmission and distribution, communications and specialized services. For data centres and AI factories, MAAS describes a complete electrical powertrain capability spanning grid connection, high-voltage substations and switchyards, transformers, switchgear, testing, commissioning and standby generation.

This is an enabling-infrastructure exposure. MAAS is not underwriting GPU demand directly and does not control the Firmus data-centre platform. Earnings depend on contracted scope, project delivery, margin discipline and working-capital conversion.

Sources: FY2025 Annual Report (pp. 5, 13-16, 52-53, 92 and 168) · 18 May 2026 Corporate Update (pp. 1-3) · JLE official page (Company profile and capabilities)

Launceston: the secured evidence base

Sources: 18 May 2026 Corporate Update (pp. 1-3)

The 3.3GW proposal is not backlog

Management has described an exclusive electrical delivery partnership for Firmus's proposed 3.3GW Australian AI Factory portfolio and an indicative A$200m of Revenue per 100MW. Multiplying those two statements produces A$6.6bn, but that is not an acceptable forecast. It assumes every proposed site proceeds, MAAS retains identical scope, pricing does not change and execution capacity is unlimited.

Our base case adds no unnamed follow-on site. Additional Revenue enters only after a binding award with a disclosed value or sufficiently specific scope. The proposed pipeline remains an upside catalyst and helps justify the bull-case multiple, but it is not part of base backlog.

Sources: 18 May 2026 Corporate Update (pp. 1-3)

Financial transmission

Sources: 18 May 2026 Corporate Update (pp. 1-3) · H1 FY2026 Report (pp. 2, 8-11, 23 and 30)

Civil and Hire: recovery plus project risk

Civil and Hire FY2025 Revenue fell 5.5% and underlying EBITDA fell 35.0% as higher-margin projects rolled off, replacement work was delayed and isolated projects incurred losses. H1 FY2026 Revenue then rose with electrical representing 20.5% of segment mix. The base forecast assumes Firmus and renewable/infrastructure work restore margins, but not to the point where contracting risk disappears.

Our FY2027 continuing model assigns A$560m Revenue and A$105m EBITDA to Civil and electrical activities. That is the largest residual earnings component and therefore the key input into the OpCo multiple.

Sources: FY2025 Annual Report (pp. 5, 13-16, 52-53, 92 and 168) · H1 FY2026 Report (pp. 2, 8-11, 23 and 30) · 18 May 2026 Corporate Update (pp. 1-3)

Property: useful asset support, not a clean NAV

FY2025 Commercial Real Estate underlying EBITDA was A$50.7m, but A$38.3m came from fair-value gains. H1 FY2026 included another A$19.1m of fair-value gains. These amounts can reflect genuine development progress, yet they are not equivalent to cash receipts and should not be capitalized as recurring contractor earnings.

We therefore value Residential and Commercial primarily through a discounted gross accounting reference of A$598.8m, consisting of investment properties, properties held for sale and inventories at H1 FY2026. It is not a project-level NAV: associated debt, tax, remaining construction costs and settlement risk are not fully disclosed. The base case applies a 20% discount, while the favourable case applies 10%.

Sources: FY2025 Annual Report (pp. 5, 13-16, 52-53, 92 and 168) · H1 FY2026 Report (pp. 2, 8-11, 23 and 30)

Manufacturing: small, export-exposed optionality

Manufacturing generated A$33.6m of FY2025 underlying Revenue and A$5.1m EBITDA, with improved machine sales and hire activity. The business sells underground equipment and parts through international distribution networks. It is a small contributor to group value, but offers a distinct mining-capex exposure.

The annual report also identifies tariffs and global trade instability as risks. We model the segment conservatively at A$38m FY2027 Revenue and A$6m EBITDA, with no strategic premium.

Sources: FY2025 Annual Report (pp. 5, 13-16, 52-53, 92 and 168)

Property operating proof points

Sources: FY2025 Annual Report (pp. 5, 13-16, 52-53, 92 and 168) · H1 FY2026 Report (pp. 2, 8-11, 23 and 30)

A large market, but not a company order book

Infrastructure Australia estimates A$1.14tn of construction activity over five years, including a A$242bn major public infrastructure pipeline. ABS data for the March 2026 quarter also showed engineering construction work rising 6.9% nationally; in South Australia, total engineering work done rose 7.1% quarter on quarter. The opportunity pool is clearly large.

Those figures are demand context, not MAAS backlog. Contract timing drives utilization, contract structure determines margin volatility, and working-capital terms determine whether EBITDA becomes cash. Our base case includes the signed Firmus scope and a measured recovery from FY2025 delays; it does not convert public infrastructure plans into company awards.

Sources: Infrastructure Australia 2025 Market Capacity Report (National five-year activity and public infrastructure pipeline) · ABS Construction Work Done, March 2026 (Key statistics) · ABS Engineering Construction Activity, March 2026 (South Australia and national work done) · FY2025 Annual Report (pp. 5, 13-16, 52-53, 92 and 168)

Digital infrastructure reaches MAAS through the electrical package

AI infrastructure increases demand for grid connections, substations, switchgear, transformers and commissioning. That creates a relevant end market for JLE's capabilities. The investment thesis is strongest where demand becomes binding electrical scope, not where industry megawatts are discussed without a contract.

The first-order forecast variables are signed contract value, completion percentage, margin and cash collection. Electricity demand, data-centre announcements and GPU deployments are secondary indicators that help explain opportunity formation but do not enter Revenue directly.

Sources: 18 May 2026 Corporate Update (pp. 1-3) · JLE official page (Company profile and capabilities) · AEMO 2026 Integrated System Plan (Network investment roadmap)

Housing remains rate-sensitive and uneven

The RBA cash-rate target was 4.35% at the research cut. May 2026 approvals were mixed: private houses rose 2.8% month on month, while private dwellings excluding houses fell 10.4%. That is consistent with a market where funding costs and product mix matter more than a single national housing headline.

For MAAS, lot readiness, buyer mix, settlement timing and local demand determine conversion. We therefore use rates and approvals as scenario context, not as a mechanical multiplier on Revenue or property value.

Sources: RBA cash-rate target (Rate effective 17 June 2026) · ABS Building Approvals, May 2026 (May 2026 key statistics) · FY2025 Annual Report (pp. 5, 13-16, 52-53, 92 and 168)

Weather, input costs and execution

Construction Materials and civil operations are exposed to adverse weather, project delay, fixed-cost utilization and input-cost inflation. Manufacturing adds tariff and trade-policy risk. These mechanisms can affect Revenue timing, margin and cash simultaneously, which is why the risk section quantifies EBITDA and NAV sensitivities rather than only listing qualitative risks.

Sources: FY2025 Annual Report (pp. 5, 13-16, 52-53, 92 and 168)

Revenue and EBITDA history

Sources: FY2025 Annual Report (pp. 5, 13-16, 52-53, 92 and 168) · FMP market snapshot (Data frozen 28 July 2026)

H1 FY2026: growth with mixed cash characteristics

Revenue grew faster than EBITDA, causing the underlying EBITDA margin to decline from 20.7% to 19.0%. Operating cash flow improved materially, but property inventories and investment activity remain important uses of capital.

Sources: H1 FY2026 Report (pp. 2, 8-11, 23 and 30)

Balance sheet before the proposed sale

Sources: H1 FY2026 Report (pp. 2, 8-11, 23 and 30)

Earnings quality adjustments

MAAS reports statutory and underlying measures. In FY2025, underlying Revenue was A$42.7m below statutory Revenue because the company excluded Revenue attributable to non-controlling interests. Underlying NPAT was A$6.5m above statutory NPAT to owners. H1 FY2026 showed a smaller A$2.7m NPAT adjustment.

The largest analytical issue is Commercial Real Estate fair-value income. We retain official underlying EBITDA for historical comparison, but separate fair-value gains from recurring OpCo earnings in valuation. This prevents a non-cash revaluation from receiving the same multiple as contracted electrical work.

Sources: FY2025 Annual Report (pp. 5, 13-16, 52-53, 92 and 168) · H1 FY2026 Report (pp. 2, 8-11, 23 and 30)

How the model moves from operations to value

What H2 FY2026 must deliver

The full-year estimate is not a black box. It requires A$149.7m of H2 EBITDA and A$57.4m of H2 underlying NPAT to owners. Those figures can be checked directly against the August result.

Sources: H1 FY2026 Report (pp. 2, 8-11, 23 and 30) · 18 May 2026 Corporate Update (pp. 1-3)

FY2027 continuing-business build

Civil and electrical plus Manufacturing and central costs form the residual OpCo multiple. Residential and Commercial are captured primarily through property NAV to avoid double-counting. Commercial fair-value gains remain in reported underlying EBITDA but are excluded from the OpCo valuation base.

Sources: FY2025 Annual Report (pp. 5, 13-16, 52-53, 92 and 168) · H1 FY2026 Report (pp. 2, 8-11, 23 and 30) · 18 May 2026 Corporate Update (pp. 1-3)

Reported-to-continuing bridge

Sources: 18 May 2026 Corporate Update (pp. 1-3)

Model rules

Sources: FY2025 Annual Report (pp. 5, 13-16, 52-53, 92 and 168) · H1 FY2026 Report (pp. 2, 8-11, 23 and 30) · 18 May 2026 Corporate Update (pp. 1-3) · FMP market snapshot (Data frozen 28 July 2026)

Earnings forecast

Sources: FY2025 Annual Report (pp. 5, 13-16, 52-53, 92 and 168) · H1 FY2026 Report (pp. 2, 8-11, 23 and 30) · 18 May 2026 Corporate Update (pp. 1-3)

EBITDA and EPS path

Sources: 18 May 2026 Corporate Update (pp. 1-3)

Where cash builds if no new use is announced

This is a constrained liquidity bridge, not a prediction that MAAS will sit on cash. It starts from modeled post-settlement net cash and deducts a 7-cent annual ordinary dividend. Acquisitions, special distributions and unsigned Firmus projects are deliberately left at zero until announced.

Sources: 18 May 2026 Corporate Update (pp. 1-3) · H1 FY2026 Report (pp. 2, 8-11, 23 and 30)

Current consensus comparison

FY2027 onward is not a clean like-for-like comparison because current provider consensus may include a different number of Materials trading months or a different discontinued-operations presentation. We retain it as a reasonableness check, not as the forecast target.

Sources: FMP market snapshot (Data frozen 28 July 2026)

Cash conversion is the quality test

The model produces continuing FCFF of about A$62m in FY2027 and A$84m in FY2028 before discretionary acquisitions or major new Firmus site investment. The path improves as residual margins normalize and interest expense falls, but property inventory and electrical working capital can absorb cash before Revenue is collected.

We will judge forecast quality using receipts, contract assets, inventory, capex and realized property proceeds rather than EBITDA alone. The sale itself is a financing event, not operating cash flow.

Sources: H1 FY2026 Report (pp. 2, 8-11, 23 and 30)

Completion-case SOTP

Sources: 18 May 2026 Corporate Update (pp. 1-3) · H1 FY2026 Report (pp. 2, 8-11, 23 and 30)

Three economic states

Sources: 18 May 2026 Corporate Update (pp. 1-3) · H1 FY2026 Report (pp. 2, 8-11, 23 and 30)

Residual OpCo DCF supports the chosen multiple

The DCF is deliberately limited to the residual operating businesses. Property and the Firmus stake remain outside it, which avoids counting the same assets twice. Terminal value is 77% of DCF enterprise value, so this remains a sensitivity check rather than a precise answer.

What the current price appears to imply

This reverse calculation is conditional on the base completion bridge. On those assumptions, the market is valuing the residual OpCo below our 7.5x SOTP multiple and implies slightly negative terminal FCFF growth. The apparent discount disappears quickly if the sale does not complete or property realization is weaker.

Sources: FMP market snapshot (Data frozen 28 July 2026) · 18 May 2026 Corporate Update (pp. 1-3) · H1 FY2026 Report (pp. 2, 8-11, 23 and 30)

Leakage and residual multiple sensitivity

The completion-case value is not robust to every assumption. At A$99m of residual EBITDA, moving from 8.5% to 12.0% leakage reduces value by about A$0.16 per share. Moving the OpCo multiple by 1.5x changes value by about A$0.41 per share.

Public peer cross-check

The screened peer median EV/EBITDA is 12.7x. We use 7.5x for residual MAAS because the peer set contains higher-quality, less property-intensive and often net-cash contractors, while MAAS still faces transaction, customer concentration and capital-allocation risk. The peer table is a cross-check, not the primary method.

Sources: FMP market snapshot (Data frozen 28 July 2026)

Scenario narratives

Risks with explicit valuation tests

These are one-factor tests around the central case, not probabilities of loss and not amounts to add together. Transaction failure and excess leakage overlap; electrical delay and civil execution can also occur together. The scenario table remains the appropriate combined downside framework.

Sources: FY2025 Annual Report (pp. 5, 13-16, 52-53, 92 and 168) · H1 FY2026 Report (pp. 2, 8-11, 23 and 30) · 18 May 2026 Corporate Update (pp. 1-3)

Catalyst ledger

Sources: 18 May 2026 Corporate Update (pp. 1-3)

How to revise the model when evidence arrives

A transaction update first changes the net-cash compartment: consideration probability, leakage and timing. A Firmus award changes the electrical Revenue schedule, margin, working capital and potentially the residual multiple, but only after the signed scope is validated. A property sale changes cash realization and NAV, not just reported Revenue.

We do not infer causality from a one-day share-price move. Event-window returns can show whether the market reacted, but financial forecast revisions require an identified business mechanism and a dated assumption change. The report should therefore be versioned at each material event rather than silently rewritten.

Sources: 18 May 2026 Corporate Update (pp. 1-3)

A proposed allocation framework

The first call on proceeds should be transaction costs, tax, retained liabilities and debt reduction. The second should be already committed capital, including the A$100m Firmus investment. Remaining cash should be evaluated against explicit hurdle rates and downside liquidity needs. In our view, a residual cash buffer plus a mix of shareholder return and contract-backed electrical investment would provide the clearest evidence of discipline.

The A$1.18bn syndicated facility increases liquidity but is not itself value creation. Likewise, the Western Sydney Aerotropolis facility should be assessed on net economic exposure: MAAS disclosed an up-to-A$625m secured loan supported by limited-recourse back-to-back funding. Gross facility size should not be presented as owned property or Revenue.

Sources: 18 May 2026 Corporate Update (pp. 1-3)

Governance questions for the next result

Sources: FY2025 Annual Report (pp. 5, 13-16, 52-53, 92 and 168) · 18 May 2026 Corporate Update (pp. 1-3)

Founder control raises the bar for capital allocation

W & E MAAS held 49.50% of ordinary shares at 11 August 2025. That alignment can support long-term decision-making, but it also gives minority shareholders less influence over major capital-allocation choices. The post-sale use of proceeds, related-party governance and acquisition discipline therefore deserve close attention.

Sources: FY2025 Annual Report (pp. 5, 13-16, 52-53, 92 and 168)

Ordinary dividend assumption

The FY2025 final dividend and H1 FY2026 interim dividend were each 3.5 cents per share and fully franked. We use 7.0 cents as the next-12-month ordinary-dividend assumption, equal to a 1.35% yield at A$5.19. It is an explicit run-rate assumption, not company guidance.

No special distribution is included. Any transaction-related capital return remains upside only after settlement, tax, retained liabilities and liquidity needs are known.

Sources: FY2025 Annual Report (pp. 5, 13-16, 52-53, 92 and 168) · H1 FY2026 Report (pp. 2, 8-11, 23 and 30) · FMP market snapshot (Data frozen 28 July 2026)

Operational stewardship

MAAS's operating footprint creates safety, environmental, community and land-development obligations. For valuation, the most immediate transmission channels are project stoppages, remediation, approvals, insurance, weather resilience and access to customers. We do not assign a generic ESG premium or discount.

Sources: FY2025 Annual Report (pp. 5, 13-16, 52-53, 92 and 168)

Evidence and model hierarchy

Sources: FY2025 Annual Report (pp. 5, 13-16, 52-53, 92 and 168) · H1 FY2026 Report (pp. 2, 8-11, 23 and 30) · 18 May 2026 Corporate Update (pp. 1-3) · FMP market snapshot (Data frozen 28 July 2026)

What has and has not been backtested

The table carries the prior-year actual forward as a deliberately simple benchmark. It is useful for checking whether MAAS's historical growth made static forecasts unreliable, but it is not a backtest of this initiation model. No historical point-in-time version of the current forecast exists, so the report makes no predictive-accuracy claim.

Sources: FY2025 Annual Report (pp. 5, 13-16, 52-53, 92 and 168) · FMP market snapshot (Data frozen 28 July 2026)

Source ledger

Sources: FY2025 Annual Report (pp. 5, 13-16, 52-53, 92 and 168) · H1 FY2026 Report (pp. 2, 8-11, 23 and 30) · 18 May 2026 Corporate Update (pp. 1-3) · FMP market snapshot (Data frozen 28 July 2026)

Definitions and limitations

Underlying measures are non-IFRS metrics defined by MAAS and reconciled in company reports. Adjusted EPS in this report excludes transaction gains and one-off costs. Continuing Revenue excludes the divested Materials business after the modeled settlement point. OpCo EBITDA excludes Residential, Commercial property earnings and fair-value gains because those assets are valued through NAV.

The SOTP is sensitive to undisclosed tax, fees, working-capital adjustments, retained liabilities and use of proceeds. The A$598.8m property reference is a gross accounting measure, not a project-level NAV. The Firmus stake is unlisted and valued at cost in the base case. Current consensus is point-in-time context; a historical consensus archive was unavailable.

The rating policy requires total return of at least 17.5% for a BUY: a 15% house threshold plus a 2.5 percentage-point promotion buffer. The current 11.2% modeled return therefore remains HOLD (High Risk).

Research disclosure

This is an illustrative independent research study prepared from public and licensed information available at the stated cut. It is not personal investment advice, a regulated research recommendation or an offer to transact. No analyst certification or claim of regulatory independence is made.

Forecasts and valuations can change materially when completion terms, FY2026 results or capital-allocation decisions become known. The target and rating remain subject to named human analyst approval before any use in regulated research.